Industrial structure optimization Rare earth permanent magnet industry concentration or further increase

In fact, the motor route without rare earths has always existed, but because the performance is not as good as that of rare earth permanent magnets, there is no technological subversion. The wrong killing of the rare earth sector also brings opportunities, and we can pay attention to the better links of the rare earth industry chain competition pattern.

Demand for rare earths is increasing dramatically as the world transitions to clean energy. Not only will it be difficult to meet this demand, but mining rare earths will have certain risks in terms of environmental protection and other aspects. So the next generation of permanent magnet drive motors was designed, which does not use any rare earth materials at all. The rapid growth of demand will lead to a shortage of rare earths, and the domestic supply of rare earths accounts for 60-70%, and the smelting separation exceeds 90%, so it is urgent to seek alternatives.

After the "cobalt-free battery" was proposed, the interesting thing is what happened next? The cobalt price has only risen for two consecutive years after a short correction of 10%, from 250,000 yuan/ton to 580,000/ton in March 2022, and is still above 250,000/ton now. Although there was a technological trend of "high nickel and low cobalt" at that time, the fundamentals of cobalt had their own industrial laws, and Tesla's slogan did not influence the long-term trend of cobalt metal prices. And this time, the technical support behind Tesla's "rare-earth-free permanent magnet motor" is actually weaker than the "cobalt-free battery".

Does the subversive technology of "rare earth-free permanent magnet motor" exist? In fact, this route has always existed, but its performance is not as good as that of rare earth permanent magnets, and it cannot be small, light, high-power, and able to cope with complex working conditions.

Follow developments in technological advancement. From the perspective of the basic theory of physics, among the elements on the earth, the magnetic material with the strongest magnetism is the rare earth magnetic material, and there is no technological subversion at present. It is difficult for the application technology progress that Tesla is good at without a breakthrough in the basic theory Get it below.

Rare earth permanent magnet materials have experienced three stages of development: the first generation SmCo5, the second generation SM2Co17, and the third generation NdFeB Nd2Fe14B. The fourth generation permanent magnet-iron nitrogen alloy is mainly promoted by the University of Minnesota in the United States and has been promoted for 20 years. Most of the experts who develop permanent magnets in foreign countries are Chinese. Domestic experts are generally not optimistic about this route. At the same time, rare earths are also used in iron-nitrogen alloys. There are still many problems to be solved, and commercialization is still far away.

With the rapid growth of downstream demand for new energy vehicles, industrial motors, industrial robots, and wind power generation, the price of rare earths may run at a high level, the industrial structure is expected to continue to be optimized, and the concentration of the rare earth permanent magnet industry may further increase.